The Four Technologies Lowering the Barriers to Quality Video Content Creation — I recently posted an essay called The Four Horsemen of the TV Apocalypse. I got a lot of feedback that the piece raised important ideas, but also that, at >10,000 words, many would be put off by the time commitment required. …

Where Does Value Accrue? — Many of my recent posts explore the following idea: the last decade in film and TV was defined by the disruption of content distribution and the next decade will be defined by the disruption of content creation. …

What’s Possible Now and Where It’s Going — Over the last nine months, I’ve been writing about why several new technologies, especially AI (including generative AI), are poised to disrupt Hollywood in coming years by lowering the barriers to high quality video content creation. (See The Four Horsemen of the TV Apocalypse and Forget Peak TV, Here Comes…

We Know the Bear Case, What Could Go Right? — The woes of the big media companies (Disney, Fox, NBC Universal, Paramount and WarnerBros. Discovery) have been well documented: linear TV is in decline; streaming has not proved the panacea most hoped; the box office is weak, with many prospective blockbusters disappointing of late; the ad environment is tepid; and…

A Framework for Thinking Through the Speed and Extent of Disruption Shows Hollywood’s Vulnerability — Six months ago, I wrote an essay titled Forget Peak TV, Here Comes Infinite TV. It laid out the case for why four technologies, most notably virtual production and AI, are poised to democratize high quality video content creation over the next 5–10 years. …

A Personal Story About How Disruption Happens and Why It’s So Hard to Stop — I use the word disruption a lot. Lately, I’ve been writing about why the last decade in TV and film was defined by the disruption of content distribution and the next decade will be defined by the disruption of content creation (see Forget Peak TV, Here Comes Infinite TV, Power…

Streaming Won’t Fill the Pay TV “Hole.” Let’s Move On. — The TV business is going through a difficult transition, even putting aside near-term challenges like the writers’ strike and the effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on ad spending. Over the past year or so, the consensus expectations for both linear TV and streaming have gotten worse. Linear pay TV revenue is…

How Music Labels Have Stayed Dominant in an Infinite Content World — In recent months, I’ve been writing about “infinite TV,” which I first laid out in Forget Peak TV, Here Comes Infinite TV. The idea is that several technologies, particularly virtual production and AI-assisted tools, are set to dramatically reduce the barriers to create high quality video content over the coming…

Why the TV Business Needs to Tackle Rising Risk — The value of any business, or any financial instrument for that matter, is a function of two things: growth and risk. It has a direct relationship with the former and an indirect relationship with the latter. It’s widely understood that in the past year growth expectations have declined in the…